On Tue, 22 Jul 2003 04:54:53 +0900, "Josef 'Jupp' Schugt"
<jupp / gmx.de> wrote (more or less):

>Saluton!
>
>* Gawnsoft; 2003-07-21, 17:46 UTC:
>> >I hope your grandchildren won't use Windows anymore.
>> 
>> Given that over 90% of the installed desktop base uses Windows, and
>> that it's been successfully (in terms of market take-up) targetted at
>> handheld devices and servers, this may be a forlorn hope.
>
>I don't try to sketch an image of what computing will be in 30 years
>because that is doomed to fail. 

Hmmm.  For a 30 year timespan, perhaps.

But for a 20 year timespan, it's not so difficult.

After all, DOS compatibility in the newest Microsoft Operating system
lasted that long (or perhaps very slightly longer)

Currently, the realm of handheld devices is, in part, recapitulating
the progress of home computers of the late-70s to  mid-90's, in terms
of UI, screen resolution, and sound capabilities.

Lots of bigger computers are still running upgrades or re-hashes of
their 20 & 30 year old OS's.


> Only one aspects seem to be
>relatively sure: Whatever will be the operating system in 30 years or
>so will almost certainly be no 2D system. Silicon Graphics is working
>on a 3D user interface and so is Microsoft. Even if Microsoft happens
>to keep a 90% share of the market it is *very* unlikely that their OS
>will be called 'Windows'.
>
>Maybe we are going to use the successor of Windows, maybe we are
>running Linux, or maybe we are struggling with the Chinese OS that we
>have to use. Who knows?
>
>It is also not too likely that we will be using Ruby - remember how
>much changes in programming language design took place since the
>early 1970's.

And yet things like Cobol, Lisp, Forth and C are still used heavily
even today.


Cheers, 
   Euan
Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
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